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Science proves that Fangio was the greatest F1 driver of all time - Mathematical modeling confirms m

Discussion in 'Chit Chat Room' started by Seria17hri11er, Apr 18, 2016.

  1. :D From ARSTechnica


    "Bell's paper goes beyond simply looking at race wins for individual drivers. As any motorsports fan will tell you, even the best driver will struggle to win with a bad car (or team), and so the models used attempt to control for this. Or, as the authors put it, "The finishing position of drivers is used as the response variable in a cross-classified multilevel model that partitions variance into team, team-year and driver levels. These effects are then allowed to vary by year, track type and weather conditions using complex variance functions."

    Perhaps we ought not be too surprised that Fangio tops the table. After all, in most subjective lists compiled by people in the sport, his name usually ranks above all others even decades later. His performance at the treacherous Nurburgring Nordschleife in 1957 alone merits mention. After losing a minute and a half to a botched wheel change, he chased down his rivals with a scarcely believable pace, shattering the lap record for the 14-mile track nine times"

    "Alain Prost and Fernando Alonso occupy the next two spots, although there are large confidence intervals around each driver in part because the study used finishing position per race (where there can be a large variance because of things like crashes or car failures).

    Interestingly, Michael Schumacher only ranks sixth despite records that may never be broken—91 wins, 68 pole positions, and seven world championships. The cause? His return to the sport after three years in retirement, when he wasn't ever able to best then-teammate Nico Rosberg. When Schumacher's 2010-2012 seasons are ignored, he displaces Alonso for third best ever."

    "Digging into the data a little more allows drivers to be ranked by their skill at various kinds of races (permanent circuits, street courses, or temporary circuits), as well as in the wet and dry. Fangio continues to shine, with the exception of temporary tracks (these are different from street courses) where Schumacher shined even brighter.

    But those pub bores who insist that it's all down to the car are mostly right. As the paper puts it, "the team effects significantly outweigh the driver effects, accounting for 86 percent of driver variation. Furthermore, the majority (about two-thirds) of the team effect is constant for a team and does not change year-on-year (although there is substantial variation within teams, year-on-year as well). In other words, the legacy of a team outweighs any transient effects as teams change year by year."

    Even the best driver will struggle in an underperforming team. After all, just ask Fernando Alonso, who hasn't won a championship since 2006..."


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  3. kunos

    kunos Alien

  4. Ahahahahaha.

    But math bro! :D
  5. Ace Pumpkin

    Ace Pumpkin Alien

    With or without math Fangio is the greatest:D

    BTW is this the Maserati F1 Classic Kunos is going to make? Can't remember the specs...getting old here;)
  6. Epistolarius

    Epistolarius Alien

  7. LeSunTzu

    LeSunTzu Alien

    Hehe seeing Prost so high in the list will cause rash and hives for many. :D And yet even Bernie acknowledged that he was best in the modern era, when he was not saying it's Vettel, Hamilton, or whoever comes next.
    Traind likes this.
  8. OoALEJOoO

    OoALEJOoO Simracer

    Racing is art, math doesn't apply here!

    Just a thought but it might not be reasonable to compare a driver using cars from the 1950's to a driver behind the wheel of a 2000's car. I tend to think the skill-set is different. The balance between reflexes, coordination, endurance, etc, are placed in different quantities depending on the type of car -and these cars are vastly different across such a large time span. In other words, Fangio might not be competitive on a 2007 car or Alonso on one from 1957. Each driver was talented on *that* particular type of car/tracks/era combination. Otherwise you could use the same math algorithm to compare F1 drivers with say rally for example. While similarities exist, it's a different animal altogether.
  9. Nahas

    Nahas Rookie

  10. Bails

    Bails Rookie

    I feel this debate could go on for ages.
    But also;
    Jim Clark.
    Enough said.
  11. Mogster

    Mogster Alien

    Yes the Maserati 250 F.

    I feel it's really hard to compare drivers from different eras. Nuvolari, Fangio, Clark, Senna, Schumacher... But really how do you compare them????
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2016
    Seria17hri11er likes this.
  12. Great points from everyone. Just to be clear, I'm not trying to say I fully agree with the article. I do not know enough about the topic to have an opinion.

    Just thought some folks would enjoy a good "Cuss and Fuss" over the article. Everything is very civil so far :D
  13. mantasisg 2

    mantasisg 2 Alien

    Seria17hri11er likes this.
  14. Had to pull the image from that article:


    Here's the thing--did I miss something? How the hell are they comparing car performance?
    Mogster likes this.
  15. Rudski

    Rudski Alien

    I went to the OP link and it was just an article, where's the math and all the interesting stuff like assumptions and methods used to rank driver "skill"?
  16. Fangio, Prost & Michael where some of the best in my book. Senna where up there too.!
  17. Ace Pumpkin

    Ace Pumpkin Alien


    In that order
    TDS likes this.
  18. YoRap

    YoRap Rookie

    I guess the fun stuff is in the journal paper:

    J Quant Anal Sports, 2015. DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2015-0050
    Seria17hri11er likes this.
  19. 6S.Manu

    6S.Manu I'm Awesome! Staff Member KS Dev Team

    Stats Geeks and their unrestrainable end of ranking everything... :mad:
  20. Ace Pumpkin

    Ace Pumpkin Alien


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