The truth about AC multiplayer

Oh my god what have I done, all I wanted was just to bring some actual data so that we are able to go a few steps away from all that guessing in all these discussions. And in the end it's again the same crap like in so many threads, you're data is wrong, there are billions of people playing AC in steam offline mode... come on, does it matter if my system don't catch a handful guys or if there are a few alu hat wearers who are using Steam but for privacy reasons playing offline? What is so wrong with just accepting that at least 30% (because I lost nearly the whole data for 3.5 days) playing online?

Assuming that the 10% number which is going around since over a year now, 30% is great. Great for Kunos because the multiplayer improvements were welcome (thx for that), great for our Plugin/App masters who made the online experience also a lot better (also thx for that). Why all that hate? Do you think it will be better for AC if the multiplayer guys are going away? We are all part of the playerbase and also part of the audience for the DLCs.

And because I promised it, here is a last 24 hours overview (UTC+1 or CET or MEZ or whatever it also can be called ^^):



gray is concurrent servers online, blue is concurrent players online, each little dot is a single measurement cycle.

 

@Jaye

Thanks for putting this together man! You did an awesome job.

I do not think anyone is hating on you or trying to argue with you. I think they are just thinking of things that might have an impact on the numbers Edwin has come up with.

Ohh, yummy Shaw. Where can I find her?

 

I'm more getting a headache when I think about each of the servers is around 5 bucks

 

I'm pretty sure if somehow servers are reduced to 10% of their quantity right now, there will be more players online. It's simple law in nature or mating which is more valuable? The thing that is more rare, or the things which are rocks you are kicking around?

 

thanx for that CET 24h overview .. as expected .. no MP for day players well gonna have to negotiate better conditions for my simracing with my wife

 

@Jaye One thing I've learned through life is that people love to be critical and cynical, especially of new ideas. It's extremely easy to take pot shots from the shadows instead of doing anything creative and useful themselves. This is especially true when it is one of their peers deviating from the norm, or if it goes against their normal way of thinking or their beliefs.

In fact, my mantra in life when it comes to new ideas is that the more people are critical of it, the more likely it is the right idea!

 

@Jaye: try to keep your cool mate ;-) Your effort is greatly appreciated. You know how it usually is: the "supporters" remain quiet, the critics get loud.

I am sure your data is very accurate - it should be the foundation for future discussion instead of guesstimations and lobby screenshots.

 

Yeah I already decided to bring my project to life. Will be a light version at first, but also kind of useful I think. But this will need some time.

And I decided to extend Edwin a little bit more with saving some little of the mentioned statistics, so it is useful for seeing trends, and some more logic for the gathered players aliases, so wreckers can't hide with renaming anymore. This should be possible to do the next days.

 

I appreciate your efforts Jaye.

 

@Jaye this is some good stuff.

In my real world (work) I have to be a stat man (a lot of analysis, trending, capacity planning etc.), so this stuff is can be pretty important. Like some have said we have to assume that Kunos already has a means to track this information (if a modder / user can gather this then surely they can), but they don't make it visible to us so what you've produced is cool!

It is worth noting that Kunos hasn't said anything about the ratio of SP v MP for quite some time (to my knowledge) and the 10% may have changed.

For those highlighting that Steam's stats are skewed because some SP racers might have Steam offline. Whilst this may be true it is irrelevant as is any business you can only go on the physical data / stats that you can gather. You cannot assume that 300k AC owners and 56k active last week = 244k playing but with Steam in offline mode - that is incredulous. AC is no different from any other game - people buy it, play it for a while and then move on to something else but a hardcore group (usually MP communities) remain. It will be the same with the console release.

Good job Edwin

 

Are you calling @Jaye a deviant? That's a bit harsh

 

IIRC 10% was roughly the number of copies sold versus the number of people who entered multiplayer (and downloaded the servers list or something like that). Your value is the number of people currently playing multiplayer versus total number of currently active players. So you both are right

From the developer's perespective, they earn money when people buy their game, not when they play it. So while the 30% looks nicer, it doesn't have to make big financial impact, because that is still a small % of paying customers. Of course people still playing the game are more likely to buy new DLC's than those who shelved the game a year ago, so it's not completely meaningless.

Anyway, good job, thanks for sharing.

 

Hey, call me stupid, but does it matter what procentage is used to prove something about mp?
Still, isn´t the AC playerbase = AC owners? If so, 10% mp players still holds up?
30-50% mp players? Yes, of active players online in steam. Was this not the same amount back when mp was released?
Bottom line is, I think the Stefano ment 10% of AC customers would be playing mp actively, is this false?
I personally doubt this proves anything about focusing even more on mp, but it´s fun data to view.

Anyway, slap me silly, just putting up thoughts, and I like stats and put a like on OP

Edit: if 100k players would be playing online actively, that´ll be something special in simracing!

 

Spot fu**ing on! Human behavior...can be revolting.

 

Posting anything on the internet is basically the same thing as walking into a room of strangers and asking for an argument. Take it for granted someone going to disagree with you.

It's interesting data, good job.

 

From the data presented in the first post

If we look at the data for all AC players

In October when Dream Pack 2 was released, peak players doubled and the average players over the month increased by almost 50% compared to the previous month (pack released early in the month).

In December when Dream Pack 3 was released, peak players increased by 40% and the average players increased by 18% compared to the previous month (pack released mid way through the month).

If DLC isn't affecting on-line numbers the implication is its off-line players who are coming back to AC to play it when DLC is released. Of course this doesn't mean on-line players are not buying the DLC, but it would be unwise to assume they are the main customers for DLC, as some suggested earlier.

 

Hey stupid - sorry, couldn't resist.

Actually, I'm sure that percentages are important to Kunos for marketing and development purposes - but they're just a nice to have for us.

The reality is that Kunos are not just focusing on one or the other - they're developing both. Each interim release so far to date has included both MP and SP features / improvements. Whilst many of us feel that there is a lot that can be done to improve the MP service, we have to accept that some of these feature are either difficult to develop from scratch or are low on the priority list.

The stats produced by Jaye do not prove that there should be a change in priority, but they are nice to have

Ed. note: I'm an online racer only...

 

This thread is more depressing than I have thought after reading some of the responses.
M H is burning bandwidth in full denial as always, good to know he is consistent
Other fanboys are in denial but some would rather bring steam offline conspiracies to play than actually admit K have released a MP number hilariously smaller than reality. It's only normal to dismiss this whole effort. It does not take into account the number of pirated copies of AC played in SP as opposed to all the CODEX and 3DMGAME drivers in MP.

People fail to comprehend the difference between 10% and 30%. To all those unsure of the difference, I would reference them to national laws covering ethnic minorities in many countries (a very simple example) and then come back and preach about how 30% is a number too small to consider. Make no mistake, 30% is still a minority but not one lightly ignored unless you like pissing against wind.

Thanks for your effort on this little statistic. Been looking for confirmation of this ever since I read that laughable number first posted.

 

I don't think there's any need for denial or conspiracies, Jaye gathered some interesting data that shows AC MP is more popular than we thought, but it's not the whole picture. If Kunos say (and they haven't said anything about it in a while as far as I know) that their numbers show a different picture, and they have access to more complete data, it's more likely Kunos number is closer to the truth. Both numbers could be wrong and it's somewhere in the middle.

Kunos said from the outset that single player was the most popular feature of the game, and I think that data goes back to netkar pro. That was their reason for concentrating on the single player aspects of the game, and those aspects also tie into the multiplayer because it's a lot of physics work. Then they improved the multiplayer side, maybe they're in no rush to trumpet the stats of multiplayer because they know it will bring down a **** storm of disgrunteled players complaining this or that feature isn't there.